Preliminary assessments indicate that recent U.S. airstrikes under Operation Midnight Hammer have dealt a “significant” blow to Iran’s nuclear program, according to Brett McGurk, a former White House Middle East coordinator who has served under both Republican and Democratic administrations.
Speaking to CNN on Thursday, McGurk—who held key national security roles under Presidents Bush, Obama, and Biden—stated that initial Battle Damage Assessments (BDA) confirm that critical Iranian nuclear facilities, including the heavily fortified Fordow enrichment site, were successfully struck.
Key Takeaways from the Strikes
1. Fordow Facility: A Major Target Successfully Hit
The Fordow Fuel Enrichment Plant, buried deep inside a mountain to protect it from aerial attacks, is one of Iran’s most critical nuclear sites. McGurk noted that early assessments suggest the U.S. munitions penetrated Fordow’s defenses, causing severe damage.
- “The news I saw in there was those munitions went down those shafts, and that means that Fordow is probably pretty destroyed and unusable,” McGurk said.
- “Certainly the centrifuges, if they were there, cannot be spun again.”
2. Three-Phase Battle Damage Assessment (BDA) Underway
McGurk outlined the U.S. military’s standard BDA process, which occurs in three phases:
- Phase I: Examines physical damage to targeted sites.
- Phase II: Evaluates the functional impact on the facility’s operations.
- Phase III: A broader intelligence review assessing the strategic setback to Iran’s nuclear program.
According to McGurk, Phases I and II have already confirmed mission success, while Phase III—which involves nuclear experts—is still ongoing.
3. A “Significant Setback” for Iran’s Nuclear Program
While the full extent of the damage remains under review, McGurk expressed confidence that the strikes severely degraded Iran’s nuclear capabilities.
- “Given what I know about the strikes, I’m quite confident Iran’s program suffered a significant setback.”
- The ultimate impact may take weeks or months to fully assess, but early indicators suggest critical infrastructure was destroyed.
Controversy Over “Obliteration” Claims
Recent reports citing preliminary U.S. intelligence assessments suggested that the strikes did not “obliterate” Iran’s nuclear program but instead set it back by a few months. The Trump administration has strongly pushed back against this narrative, insisting the operation was a decisive success.
When asked about former President Trump’s use of the word “obliterate“ in describing the mission, McGurk acknowledged that presidential rhetoric often differs from military assessments.
- “Presidents often speak differently than military or intelligence officials,” he said.
- However, he emphasized that Fordow’s destruction would represent a major strategic victory, even if the full damage assessment is still pending.
What’s Next?
- Ongoing BDA: The Phase III assessment will determine the long-term impact on Iran’s nuclear timeline.
- Iran’s Response: Tehran has yet to issue a detailed statement on the extent of the damage, but retaliatory measures (cyberattacks, proxy strikes, or diplomatic escalation) remain possible.
- Global Reactions: U.S. allies and adversaries alike will be watching closely to see how this affects nuclear negotiations and regional stability.
Conclusion
While the full strategic impact of Operation Midnight Hammer is still being analyzed, early assessments suggest the U.S. has delivered a major blow to Iran’s nuclear ambitions. The destruction of Fordow—if confirmed—would mark one of the most significant setbacks to Tehran’s program in years.
The coming weeks will reveal whether this operation merely delayed Iran’s nuclear progress or dealt a lasting crippling blow.
